As the media and pundits discuss who “won” last night’s Democratic debate, we took a look at two voter support metrics: polling and retweets.
From Sept. 1 to Oct. 13, The ScottRasmussen.com/HarrisX poll tracked who registered voters are most likely to vote for in a Democratic primary. We also looked at the candidates’ average number of retweets over the same time period. Spoiler alert: They tell two very different stories.
Former Vice President Biden tops the poll, at 30.08%, but comes in fourth in average retweets (1,935). On the other hand, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) topped the Twitter engagement list with an average of 2,819 retweets per tweet but came in 6th in polling, with just 2.96% of registered voters saying they are most likely to vote for him in the Democratic primary.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) was the only candidate to land in the top three in polling and average retweets, nabbing second in both.
Is social media engagement an early indicator of election-day votes? Or, is traditional polling still our best bet for predicting election results? We’ll be watching.