The Trail

Campaign 2019 By The Numbers

As we head into 2020 and approach the presidential campaign’s first primaries, where do the candidates stand across three metrics: public opinion, social media engagement and funding? We took one last look in 2019.

On the heels of last night’s debate and as we close out the 2019 portion of the 2020 presidential campaign, The Conversation took one final look at three metrics of campaign performance to see where the candidates stand: Polling, average retweets and FEC-reported contributions.

From Nov. 1 to Dec. 19, The poll tracked the candidates registered voters are most likely to vote for in a Democratic primary. We also looked at the candidates’ average number of retweets over the same time period, and fundraising contributions as of their last update on Sept. 30 (when Senator Kamala Harris, D-CA, was still in the race).

The result? Of the three generally agreed-upon frontrunners—Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT), former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)—Sanders has a clear lead in average retweets and contributions, with Biden dominating the polls.

But looking at the runners-up in each category, things get more interesting. When it comes to campaign coffers, Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind. snagged third place, substantially outraising Biden. And Buttigieg beat out Warren for average retweets, coming close to second-place Biden and trailed by former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julián Castro.

With some contenders hitting their stride for the first time in last night’s debate, how might these categories shift in the new year? Here at The Conversation, you can bet we’ll be watching.